Navigating 2024: Texas Real Estate Projections Unveiled
- jonathanbane
- Jan 11, 2024
- 2 min read
As of January 4, 2024, the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) offers a comprehensive forecast shedding light on the Lone Star State's real estate landscape for the coming year. Given Texas' immense economic influence, decisions made within the real estate sector have far-reaching implications, affecting over 30 million residents. This forecast, supported by relevant and reliable data, aims to guide real estate stakeholders, including financiers, developers, builders, homebuyers, sellers, business occupiers, and transaction facilitators, towards informed decisions.
Key Trends and Principles: Texas stands as a trendsetter in residential, commercial, and land markets across the U.S. Notably, the housing markets of DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio surpassed all others in 2023. The 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast addresses the sustainability of this success, emphasizing macro drivers, consensus projections, and risk considerations. The forecast is grounded in seven principles, including audience focus, asset inclusivity, historical comparison, diverse evaluation methods, scenario-based projections, continuous evaluation, and external vetting.
Macro Drivers and Projections: The forecast identifies key macro drivers influencing the Texas real estate landscape in 2024. Economic output, job market trends, income, spending, population growth, interest rates, inflation, energy prices, and legal/geopolitical factors all play pivotal roles. Projections range from GDP and employment figures to interest rates and energy prices. Notably, Texas anticipates a GDP growth of 2.0% to 2.5% and a population growth of 1.0% to 2.0%.
Sector-Specific Projections: The forecast provides detailed projections for residential, commercial, and land sectors:
Residential:
Single-Family Housing: Despite challenges in 2023, single-family home deliveries are expected to increase in 2024, with flat to slightly declining prices and rents.
New Construction: Leading markets like Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio will continue their positive trajectory.
Commercial:
Multifamily Housing: Anticipated lower apartment deliveries with strengthening rent growth.
Office Space: New deliveries expected, but net absorption will be negative, leading to falling rents.
Retail Space: Stable inventory, positive net absorption, and slightly increasing rents.
Industrial Space: Strong deliveries, healthy net absorption, and rising rents, albeit at a slower pace.
Land:
Rural Land: Declining sales volumes, a peak in median land prices, and potential impacts from legal and regulatory changes.
Legal & Regulatory Outlook: The article outlines significant legal and regulatory changes, such as SB 929, SB 2, HB 3697, HB 14, HB 1526, and HB 2127, discussing their potential impact on property owners, homeowners, and commercial or residential developers.
Conclusion: The 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast, a collaborative effort by TRERC's research team, presents an innovative approach to guide real estate decisions in the Lone Star State. As an evolving document, it aims to provide a roadmap for real estate stakeholders navigating the dynamic Texas market throughout the year. Stakeholders are encouraged to stay abreast of updates and changes as the forecast undergoes regular evaluations and revisions, ensuring its continued relevance and reliability.
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